The last few months have been brutal for the economy and the markets. Over the past few weeks, we have been tracking TNA and TZA, which are 3x the Russell 2000 and 3x inverse the Russell 2000, respectively. The market continues to be a forward looking entity, and the technicals for small caps continue to look good.
IWM - technically, the 13 day ema is above the 50 day ema; bounced off the top bollinger band, low volume, stochastic trending down away from overbought, MACDs positive, FI negative - it's psychologically not easy to do, but 01/09/2009 may have been a good buying opp. of TNA at $31.50 - could ride the Obama inauguration wave for the next week and beyond, as long as no significant bad news hits the markets.
Sunday, January 11, 2009
Saturday, September 13, 2008
Week Ending September 12, 2008
The fate of Lehman (LEH) is weighing heavily on the sentiment of the markets, specifically the financials. This too shall pass, sooner than later.
Symbol TM Sentiment
DIA 56% neutral
SPY 40% neutral
QQQQ 42% neutral
IWM 72% bullish
VNQ 58% neutral
XLF 63% bullish/neutral - add 100 xlf @ $21.17
BND 88% bullish - add 100 @ $76.84
GLD 28% bearish
USO 51% neutral
EEM 42% neutral
FXI 33% bearish/neutral
UUP 88% bullish - add 100 @ $24.33
GSG 56% neutral
Saturday, September 6, 2008
Week Ending September 5, 2008
We have substituted GSG for USO and MOO; GSG is more representative of the commodities pulse.
DIA 33% bearish/neutral
SPY 26% bearish
QQQQ 42% neutral
IWM 44% neutral
VNQ 63% bullish/neutral
XLF 72% bullish - buy 100@$21.74
BND 79% bullish - buy 100@$76.46
GLD 37% bearish/neutral
EEM 42% neutral
FXI 35% bearish/neutral
UUP 93% bullish - buy 100@$24.43
GSG 42% neutral
Tuesday, September 2, 2008
The Importance of Good Data/Information
On August 29, 2008, Seeking Alpha published an article "False DataClobbers the Markets", by Mr. Jason Schwarz. The article is an interesting and timely one, and again points out the importance of good data in good decision making. As an engineer and a business leader, I was trained to rely on data to make my important decisions and calculations - otherwise, the end result is garbage in - garbage out (GIGO). Data review should not produce "paralysis by analysis", but should result in better investment/trading decisions.
Monday, September 1, 2008
Week Ending August 29, 2008
For the week ending August 29, 2008, the TM values show:
DIA- neutral
SPY- neutral
QQQQ- neutral
IWM- neutral
VNQ- neutral
XLF- bullish; possibly start building a position in XLF or UYG - 100 UYG @$21.03??
BND- neutral/bullish; possibly start building a position - 100 BND @ $76.30??
GLD- neutral
USO- neutral
MOO- neutral
EEM- neutral/bearish
FXI- neutral/bearish
UUP - neutral
Background
I have been investing and trading in the US equity and bond markets for over 20 years. My father introduced me to investing in the great US stock markets when I was a teenager. Together we invested in several of America's blue chip companies including General Electric, which we bought and never sold, reinvesting dividends, and allowing compound interest to work its magic! We also took a deep breath and watched the markets anxiously on October 19, 1987 and the tech bubble that broke in 2000!
Why this Blog?
I do not believe that most of us understand enough about trading or investing. Without my father's influence, I would have known very little about saving and investing. I learned a lot about economic and financial theory in my undergraduate economics and graduate level MBA classes. However, when it came to investing, the advice most of us receive is to save, get a good financial adviser/planner, and invest in your company's 401K or other program.
In 2008, with the internet, the number of investing vehicles available to go long, short, bullish, bearish or neutral, I want to ensure that my children use all the (often free) tools available to them to learn from, understand, and profit from trading and investing in global equity and bond markets.
Every Saturday, we will provide a summary of a basket of equities that we follow, and provide a brief tehnimotional rating and opinion. We will follow DIA, SPY, QQQQ, IWM, VNQ, XLF, BND, GLD, USO, MOO, EEM and FXI.
Technimotional Calculation
The mathematics behind technimotional investing is sound and tested, however the methodology for calculating the technimotional value are proprietary and will be dynamic and evolve.
The technimotional (TM) rankings are:
1 - 30 : bearish
31 - 39 : bearish/neutral
40 - 60 : neutral
61 - 70 : bullish/neutral
71 - 100 : bullish
I have been investing and trading in the US equity and bond markets for over 20 years. My father introduced me to investing in the great US stock markets when I was a teenager. Together we invested in several of America's blue chip companies including General Electric, which we bought and never sold, reinvesting dividends, and allowing compound interest to work its magic! We also took a deep breath and watched the markets anxiously on October 19, 1987 and the tech bubble that broke in 2000!
Why this Blog?
I do not believe that most of us understand enough about trading or investing. Without my father's influence, I would have known very little about saving and investing. I learned a lot about economic and financial theory in my undergraduate economics and graduate level MBA classes. However, when it came to investing, the advice most of us receive is to save, get a good financial adviser/planner, and invest in your company's 401K or other program.
In 2008, with the internet, the number of investing vehicles available to go long, short, bullish, bearish or neutral, I want to ensure that my children use all the (often free) tools available to them to learn from, understand, and profit from trading and investing in global equity and bond markets.
Every Saturday, we will provide a summary of a basket of equities that we follow, and provide a brief tehnimotional rating and opinion. We will follow DIA, SPY, QQQQ, IWM, VNQ, XLF, BND, GLD, USO, MOO, EEM and FXI.
Technimotional Calculation
The mathematics behind technimotional investing is sound and tested, however the methodology for calculating the technimotional value are proprietary and will be dynamic and evolve.
The technimotional (TM) rankings are:
1 - 30 : bearish
31 - 39 : bearish/neutral
40 - 60 : neutral
61 - 70 : bullish/neutral
71 - 100 : bullish
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